Orders for wind turbines to fall by 93%, energy experts predict

Ontario has been sold off to the green energy bubble

Also, New York Times today:   Cost of Green Power Makes Projects Tougher Sell

Also:   Vestas to lay off 3,000 workers as profit slides

Wind power projects are expected to decline sharply by 2013

by Tim Webb, The Guardian UK

Orders for offshore wind turbines in Britain will slump next year, threatening to halt the industry’s recent growth and the expected creation of up to 10,000 “green economy” jobs.

Analysts are forecasting a 93% drop in the installation of new offshore windfarms in 2013 compared with the previous year. As orders for cables, foundations and other equipment are typically made two to three years ahead of the project being completed, the slowdown will start to bite among UK suppliers next year.

Windfarm developers are worried that the hiatus in the industry will last several years, which could result in large-scale job losses if other related work cannot be found. One said this gap would cause “huge problems” for the supply chain and it would be hard for manufacturers to invest in new facilities in Britain without a steady stream of work.

Britain recently overtook Denmark to become the world’s largest offshore windfarm player, implying the tripling of capacity in the next two years. But new projects will dry up in 2013. Only 90 megawatts (MW) of newly installed capacity, which is enough to supply 30,000 homes when the wind blows, is being forecast by energy experts at Douglas-Westwood, compared with 1,368Mw the year before.

Energy companies are expected to spend the next two years planning bids to build huge “Round 3” projects and these may not become operational much before the end of the decade.

There are other extra projects on the drawing board which are supposed to fill this gap. But planning problems, difficulties securing finance and cost overruns on existing projects mean that these plans could be scaled back. Swedish firm Vattenfall said last month that it would not take up the option of expanding its Thanet windfarm – the largest offshore project in the world – blaming problems securing access to the grid.

Analysts at Douglas-Westwood are forecasting a pick-up in activity in 2014, estimating 774MW of new capacity, and bigger increases beyond that, but this assumes that developers build these extra projects.

Huge problems

One offshore windfarm developer said: “The industry faces a gap mid-decade whilst it waits for Round 3 and this will cause huge problems for the supply chain. Projects such as Thanet have kicked off the programme after the Round 1 demonstrator projects but without a steady build-up of work the investments needed, for example in new manufacturing facilities, may be difficult to justify.”

The industry received a huge boost last month when Siemens, General Electric and Gamesa said they would go ahead with plans to build new turbine manufacturing facilities in Britain. But the factories may not ramp up production until towards the end of the decade for Round 3 projects.

The availability of bank finance for offshore projects – at least twice as costly as onshore windfarms – has still not returned to pre-credit crunch levels. Now there are only 10-14 banks actively lending, compared with almost 40 before 2008, each lending about half what they were lending before. Andy Cox, head of KPMG’s energy practice, said: “It takes more time to get their credit committees comfortable with the risks associated with these projects, particularly as they get bigger and bigger. A huge financing gap in the market is looming with Round 3.”

Middle East funds such as Masdar, which took a stake in the London Array project when Shell pulled out, are in talks with cash-strapped utility firms about making further investments.

The government will outline this month how it will overhaul the energy market to make it more attractive to invest in low-carbon forms of generation such as gigantic offshore windfarms.

19 thoughts on “Orders for wind turbines to fall by 93%, energy experts predict

  1. This won’t stop McGuinty and Gang……..they are up to their necks with signed contracts and failed promises to Greed Merchants and Greedy Investors…………..to Hell with Ontario Citizens, he has to keep his Wind Lobby happy or he will get “deep sixed” by the “Greenies” who depend on this parasitic Industry for their existence…..

    50,000 jobs to be created should actually be labelled: “50,000 Millionaires will be created world-wide at the expense of Ontario Citizens Lives!”

  2. Again,government intervention needed in the energy market to make wind turbine projects viable. MORE OF THE PEOPLE’S MONEY down the drain!!!

    It takes the people’s money to make this work. Without it the whole thing crashes.

  3. Maybe this is why the Ontario Liberals won’t let us see the details of the untendered contracts that they signed with Samsung….Wondering if they could be held personally responsible for these contracts ….if they are in their own interests and not the public interest ?

  4. If the PC’s can’t get those details then how could an “honest” citizen get them?………..

  5. Is the energy file in Ontario too far gone now to simply scrap this entire unnecessary, horrendously damaging and expensive experiment first visited by Mike Harris?

    Obviously it is perfectly fine to rob the people blind to make NGOs rich, why can’t we rob ourselves for well, ourselves?

    Let’s scrap the GEA, OPA, IESO, Hydro One, OPG, Bruce Nuclear Power, and the OEFC and go back to the days of Ontario Hydro and make Electricity at Cost the first constitutional amendment so one corrupt politician after another can’t screw with electricity for political gain!

    AARRGGHH!!

    Double AARRGGHH!

    “If I had…” Well, you know…

    Sean Holt.

  6. Just out of curiosity…

    It seems that the majority of wind turbines erected in most jurisdictions globally with only a few exceptions, weren’t manufactured in the jurisdictions where the turbines were erected. If my suspicions are correct, this means that generally, there are NO economic spin-offs to wind energy. Those in Ontario (if any) will only be realized at some [unknown] point in the future.

    Is this actually the case or am I just spinning my wheels here?

    I am not aware of an operating IWT plant in Ontario, is this true?

    Are we bigger suckers then even I imagined?

    Sean Holt.

  7. Just announced: a new plant in Windsor that will be dedicated to producing solar and wind parts for the ever successful Renewable Strategy by McGuinty!

    http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/your-business/auto-parts-company-gets-green-energy-lift/article1781138/?cmpid=rss1

    I assume that once a population is ground down to pleading for scraps on the curb because of a Government’s intent to destroy the economy then people will accept anything no matter how bad it is for their neighbours and friends!

    Sad epitaph for a Province that ONCE was the “engine that drove Canada’s economy!

  8. Perhaps the banks are getting smart about the risks involved in financing wind turbine projects.

    Windsor’s manufacturing sector sure has been hit hard by the demise of its auto sector. Quixote, as you say people are desparate for jobs there.

    Sooner or later folks will wake up and discover just how much harm the Global Warming scam has done to their wallets.

  9. “Green Energy Act, which was put in place last year and pays the richest, long-term rates in North America.”

    Finally! Some honesty in a report!

    It SHOULD read “pays the richest long term rates in the WORLD!”

    … And is the sole reason for the existence of Green energy in Ontario.

    Yup, we ARE worse suckers then even I imagined!

    Sean Holt.

  10. We need to see the cancellation clause in the Samsung contract as well as the metrics for performance or failure to perform…I find it difficult to believe that McGuinty and Company would find an air-tight contract without an out clause based on some assumptions…This is likely why they don’t want us to see the agreement…..so we can follow the money…..and corruption taking place…

  11. So Sean, I checked for you and Prince Wind farm, third largest in Ontario, blighting the “Group of Seven” vistas up on pristine Lake Superior was proud to hit it’s peak generating capacity of 189MW on Oct 27-29.

    Of course since much of the province was busy restringing downed power lines it may not have had anywhere to go…

    Then there is the problem of finding someone who needs it at this time of year since the big power drain is now in the hot months when the wind is often less than the 12kmh minimum needed by the IWT

    The numbers would be laughable if you were not paying the bill…

  12. I agree with you Sean, more people should stand up like they do in British Columbia, but here in Ontario, it is oh well, and life goes on.
    This government is just like a dictator, they were elected by the people of On and they don’t listen to the people in rural On they should go to prison for the way he treats the people in this Province.

  13. More likely there is low supply of neodymium…

    “There is a long list of scarce metals needed for alternative energy and transportation. Metals like gallium, indium, selenium, tellurium, and high purity silicon are needed to make photovoltaic panels. To make batteries there’s zinc, vanadium, lithium and rare earth elements as well as platinum group minerals for fuel cell-powered vehicles. One of the biggest players in the scarce metals game is China, and they are starting to play hard ball, says Burnell.

    China is preparing to build 330 giga-watts worth of wind generators. That will require about 59,000 tons of neodymium to make high-strength magnets — more than that country’s annual output of neodymium. China supplies the world with a lot of those rare earth elements, like neodymium, and will have little or none to export if it moves ahead with its wind power plans. ”

    From Eurekalert
    http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2010-11/gsoa-son103110.php

  14. So the emphasis will then switch to bio-fuels — BUT!

    “BRUSSELS, Nov 8 (Reuters) – European plans to promote biofuels will drive farmers to convert 69,000 square km of wild land into fields and plantations, depriving the poor of food and accelerating climate change, a report warned on Monday.

    The impact equates to an area the size of the Republic of Ireland.

    As a result, the extra biofuels that Europe will use over the next decade will generate between 81 and 167 percent more carbon dioxide than fossil fuels, says the report.

    Nine environmental groups reached the conclusion after analysing official data on the European Union’s goal of getting 10 percent of transport fuel from renewable sources by 2020.”

    http://af.reuters.com/article/energyOilNews/idAFLDE6A317F20101107?sp=true

    Read the whole article — it gets worse!

    Happy reading…

  15. Hey WillR…

    FYI, China actually controls the rare earth market almost completely, accounting for 95%. It’s not that
    most of the actual resources are in China, she has just “acquired” these resources from other countries as well including the US. Each IWT needs about two tons of these in the generator or so I’m told and a quick “google” seems, oddly enough, to support this.

    Do the math…

    Doesn’t bode well for IWT manufacture in Ontario. Although, we may have an “assembly “plant or two.

    Now, interestingly enough, motors and generators can be made without permanent magnets and these tend to have higher energy densities and be more efficient. In point of fact, pure electromagnetic generators existed well before one’s that employed permanent magnets.

    I’m guessing these are commercially available already and have been for some time so barring the usual
    stupidity, I really can’t see a problem. Having said that, the LEAST common thing is common sense!

    Sean Holt.

  16. Doesn’t bode well for IWT manufacture in Ontario. Although, we may have an “assembly “plant or two.

    That is exactly the plan! And maybe some rotors — but Generators will be made anywhere but here as that is considered “Hi-Tech” and would give Canada some real clout…

    In the meantime we give our money to American companies to help them take over our country — go figger!

  17. From Deja News… and many other places today — just google it…

    ************************
    TORONTO (Reuters) – Rows of moss-covered concrete bricks block the opening of the Monmouth rare earth mine in Canada, keeping curious hikers from entering the long-abandoned shaft.

    From the early 1940s to the late 1970s, a now-defunct company called Amalgamated Rare Earth Mines explored the site for uranium and a then-obscure cluster of 17 elements known as rare earths.

    The mine, 340 km (215 miles) north of Toronto, never went into commercial production and by the early 1980s the company abandoned the project, scared off by an aggressive Chinese campaign to corner the rare earth market.

    Two decades after the Monmouth mine shut, China accounts for 97 percent of the world’s rare earth ore production, empowering Beijing in a way that was unimaginable in the 1980s.

    Rare earths have become crucial components for some of the world’s consumer and industrial icons: the Toyota Prius, General Electric wind turbines, the Apple iPhone and hundreds of other devices.

    Until recently, the global dependency on China for rare earths was a well-kept secret. But word started to spread fast after Beijing cut export quotas by 70 percent for the second half of 2010, sending prices of some oxides — the purified form of rare earth elements — up as much as 850 percent. The need for alternative supplies from outside China suddenly became obvious.

    Dozens of companies all around the world are now aiming to fill the coming void in supplies, and investors have poured billions of dollars into their projects.

    ***************************

    Happy Hunting

    Lot 33, Con. XIV, 1.25 miles south of Wilberforce, Monmouth Twp., Haliburton County – Satterly(1977), ROM# M20086

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